《穷查理宝典》读后感

底本：Poor Charlie's Almanack，Stripe Press 2023 第三版在线全文 · 含序、第一至三章、十一篇演讲 · 英文逐字摘自原书，附中文译文

以下按《穷查理宝典》原书结构，从序开始，以每一章、每一篇演讲为单位：先列出该章/该篇的原文要点（英文逐字附中文译文与出处），再写读后。读后只基于本节已引原文展开。书中另有约翰·科里森（John Collison）为 Stripe Press 版所写的前言，此处未引其原文。文末附事实出处核对表，列出本节全部引文的出处回溯。

序前言、序与引言

全书以彼得·考夫曼的引言开篇，点明芒格思想的重心所在：

"It is clear throughout these talks and speeches that Charlie places a premium on life decisions over investment decisions. His mental models, drawn from every discipline imaginable, recur repeatedly, and in no way focus on 'business portfolio strategy' or 'beta' or 'CAPM.' Rather, they center on fundamental truth, human accomplishment, human foibles, and the arduous path to wisdom." 译文：在这些谈话与演讲中很清楚，查理把人生决策看得比投资决策更重。他的心智模型取自一切可想见的学科，反复出现，且绝不聚焦于"商业组合策略"或"贝塔"或"CAPM"。相反，它们以根本真理、人类成就、人类弱点，以及通往智慧的艰辛之路为核心。 —— Peter D. Kaufman, Introduction（引言）, 《穷查理宝典》

沃伦·巴菲特以"如何选择合伙人"为题写序：

"Look first for someone both smarter and wiser than you are. After locating him (or her), ask him not to flaunt his superiority so that you may enjoy acclaim for the many accomplishments that sprang from his thoughts and advice. Seek a partner who will never second-guess you nor sulk when you make expensive mistakes. Look also for a generous soul who will put up his own money and work for peanuts." 译文：先找一个比你更聪明、更睿智的人。找到后，请他不要炫耀优越性，好让你能享受因他的思想与建议而生的诸多成就带来的赞誉。找一个从不在你犯错时事后质疑你、也不生闷气的合伙人。也要找一个慷慨的灵魂，肯拿出自己的钱、只拿微薄薪水工作。 —— Warren E. Buffett, Foreword（序言）, 《穷查理宝典》

芒格随即对这篇序写了反驳，把光环还回去：

"I think there's some mythology in the idea that I've been this great enlightener of Warren. He hasn't needed much enlightenment. I frankly think I get more credit than I deserve. It is true that Warren had a touch of brain block from working under Ben Graham and making a ton of money. But if Charlie Munger had never lived, the Buffett record would still be pretty much what it is." 译文：我认为"我一直是沃伦的伟大启蒙者"这种想法有些神话色彩。他并不需要太多启蒙。坦白说，我觉得自己得到的赞誉多于应得。诚然，沃伦在为本·格雷厄姆工作、赚了大钱的过程中有过一点思维定式。但即便查理·芒格从未存在，巴菲特的记录也大致会是现在的样子。 —— Charles T. Munger, Rebuttal（对序言的反驳）, 《穷查理宝典》

一芒格传略

第一章由迈克尔·布罗吉（Michael Broggie）撰写，记述芒格的生平。以下是原书中的几处原话：

"Behind the extraordinary story of Berkshire Hathaway are two financial geniuses: the widely acclaimed Warren Buffett and his 'silent partner,' Charlie Munger, who relishes his obscurity." 译文：在伯克希尔·哈撒韦非凡故事的幕后，有两位金融天才：广受赞誉的沃伦·巴菲特，以及他那"沉默的合伙人"查理·芒格——他乐于自己的低调。 —— Michael Broggie, Chapter One（芒格传略）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Charles Thomas Munger was born on January 1, 1924, in America's heartland, Omaha, Nebraska." 译文：查尔斯·托马斯·芒格于 1924 年 1 月 1 日出生在美国的中心地带——内布拉斯加州的奥马哈。 —— Michael Broggie, Chapter One（芒格传略）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Charlie graduated from Harvard Law School in 1948 and was one of 12 in his class of 335 to graduate magna cum laude." 译文：查理 1948 年从哈佛法学院毕业，是 335 人的班级中 12 位以优等成绩（magna cum laude）毕业的人之一。 —— Michael Broggie, Chapter One（芒格传略）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Since 1964, when Warren—and, some years later, Charlie—assumed management of Berkshire, its market value has increased an astonishing 13,500 times, from $10 million to roughly $135 billion, without much of an increase in outstanding shares." 译文：自 1964 年沃伦——几年后还有查理——接管伯克希尔以来，其市值惊人地增长了约 13,500 倍，从 1,000 万美元增至约 1,350 亿美元，流通股数量却没有大幅增加。 —— Michael Broggie, Chapter One（芒格传略）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Despite his healthy self-image, Charlie would prefer to be anonymous." 译文：尽管自我形象健康，查理却宁可匿名。 —— Michael Broggie, Chapter One（芒格传略）, 《穷查理宝典》

二子女记忆中的父亲

第二章是八个子女对芒格的回忆。长子小查尔斯记下了一桩借车的小事：

"On the last day of a family ski vacation in Sun Valley when I was 15 or so, my dad and I were driving back in the snow when he took a 10-minute detour to gas the red Jeep we were driving. He was pressed for time to have our family catch the plane home, so I was surprised to notice as he pulled into the station that the tank was still half full. I asked my dad why we had stopped when we had plenty of gas, and he admonished me, 'Charlie, when you borrow a man's car, you always return it with a full tank of gas.'" 译文：在我十五岁左右，一次太阳谷家庭滑雪度假的最后一天，我和父亲在雪中开车返程，他绕了十分钟的路去给那辆我们开的红色吉普加油。他赶着全家赶飞机，时间很紧，所以我惊讶地注意到，他进站时油箱还是半满的。我问父亲，既然油还很多为什么停下，他告诫我："查理，你借别人的车时，还的时候油箱永远是满的。" —— Charles T. Munger, Jr.（长子小查尔斯）, Chapter Two, 《穷查理宝典》

女儿温迪忆及父亲在餐桌上惯用的两种教育故事：

"My dad often used the forum of the family dinner table to try to educate his children. His favorite educational tools were the Morality Tale, in which someone faced an ethical problem and chose the correct path, and the Downward Spiral Tale, in which someone made the wrong choice and suffered an inevitable series of catastrophic personal and professional losses." 译文：我父亲常利用家庭餐桌这个场合来教育孩子。他最喜欢的教育工具是"道德寓言"——有人面对道德难题并选了正确的路；以及"堕落螺旋寓言"——有人做了错误选择，并遭受一系列不可避免的、灾难性的个人与职业损失。 —— Wendy Munger（女儿温迪）, Chapter Two, 《穷查理宝典》

"I think back on this story every time I hear of yet another government official who chose the cover-up instead of the honest confession after making a mistake." 译文：每次我听到又有某个政府官员在犯错后选择掩盖、而非诚实认错，我都会想起这个故事。 —— Wendy Munger（女儿温迪，述一公司财务主管犯错后主动承认、被留用之例）, Chapter Two, 《穷查理宝典》

三生活、学习与决策的方法

第三章是全书的方法论总装。芒格提出"双轨分析"：

"Personally, I've gotten so that I now use a kind of two-track analysis. First, what are the factors that really govern the interests involved, rationally considered? And second, what are the subconscious influences where the brain, at a subconscious level, is automatically doing these things—which, by and large, are useful but which often misfunction? One approach is rationality, the way you'd work out a bridge problem: by evaluating the real interests, the real probabilities, and so forth. And the other is to evaluate the psychological factors that cause subconscious conclusions, many of which are wrong." 译文：就我个人而言，我已发展到现在使用一种双轨分析。第一，理性地考虑，真正支配所涉利益的那些因素是什么？第二，那些潜意识的影响是什么——大脑在潜意识层面自动做着这些事——它们大体上有用，却常常失灵？一种方式是理性，像你解一道桥牌题那样：评估真实的利益、真实的概率，等等。另一种方式，是评估导致潜意识结论的那些心理因素，其中许多是错误的。 —— Charles T. Munger, Chapter Three（方法论）, 《穷查理宝典》

关于少做交易、长期持有，书中称其为"sit-on-your-ass investing"并列出三项好处：

"You're paying less to brokers, you're listening to less nonsense, and if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two, or three percentage points per annum." 译文：你付给经纪人的更少，你听到的废话更少，而且如果奏效，税制每年会额外给你一、二或三个百分点。 —— Charles T. Munger, Chapter Three（"sit-on-your-ass investing" 的好处）, 《穷查理宝典》

投资原则清单中"智识谦逊"一条写了全书纲领：

"Above all, never fool yourself, and remember that you are the easiest person to fool." 译文：最重要的是，永远不要欺骗自己，并记住你是最容易受骗的那个人。 —— Charles T. Munger, Chapter Three（投资原则清单·智识谦逊）, 《穷查理宝典》

书中另有一份十个维度的投资原则清单，涵盖：风险、独立、准备、智识谦逊、分析严谨、配置、耐心、决断、变化、专注。

演讲一哈佛学校毕业演讲（1986）

芒格不讲"如何幸福"，反过来讲"如何保证痛苦"。他先引卡森的三个痛苦处方：

"Carson's prescription for sure misery included: Ingesting chemicals in an effort to alter mood or perception; Envy; Resentment." 译文：卡森保证痛苦的药方包括：摄入化学物质以改变情绪或认知；嫉妒；怨恨。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk One（1986 哈佛学校毕业演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

他追加了四个处方：不可靠、只从自身经验学习、遇挫即沉沦、忽略乡下人的故事：

"First, be unreliable. Do not faithfully do what you have engaged to do. My second prescription for misery is to learn everything you possibly can from your own experience, minimizing what you learn vicariously from the good and bad experiences of others, living and dead. My third prescription to you for misery is to go down and stay down when you get your first, second, or third severe reverse in the battle of life. My final prescription to you for a life of fuzzy thinking and infelicity is to ignore a story they told me when I was very young about a rustic who said, 'I wish I knew where I was going to die, and then I'd never go there.'" 译文：第一，不可靠。不要忠实地去做你承诺要做的事。我的第二个痛苦处方是，尽可能从你自己的经验中学习，最小化你从他人——无论生死——好坏经验中间接学到的东西。我的第三个痛苦处方是，当你在人生战场上遭遇第一、第二或第三次严重挫折时，倒下并一直躺着。我最后的处方，给你一种思维糊涂、不幸福的人生，是忽略我幼时听人讲的一个乡下人的故事——他说："我真希望知道自己会死在哪里，那我就永远不去那里。" —— Charles T. Munger, Talk One（1986 哈佛学校毕业演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

他引用代数学家雅各比的反向思维口头禅：

"Invert, always invert." 译文：反过来想，永远反过来想。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk One（引代数学家 Jacobi）, 《穷查理宝典》

关于达尔文的工作方法，他特别提到"反向"与"客观性"：

"Darwin's result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had." 译文：达尔文的成果在很大程度上归功于他的工作方法，那方法违背了我所有关于痛苦的规则，尤其强调一种反向的扭转——他总是优先关注那些倾向于证伪他已有的、珍视且来之不易的理论的证据。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk One（1986 哈佛学校毕业演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

他用爱因斯坦改写牛顿定律来对比大多数人只看正向：

"When almost everyone else was trying to revise the electromagnetic laws of Maxwell to be consistent with the motion laws of Newton, Einstein discovered special relativity as he made a 180-degree turn and revised Newton's laws to fit Maxwell's." 译文：当几乎所有人都在试图修正麦克斯韦的电磁定律，使之与牛顿的运动定律一致时，爱因斯坦发现了狭义相对论——他转了个 180 度，修正的是牛顿的定律，以迁就麦克斯韦的。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk One（1986 哈佛学校毕业演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲二初阶普世智慧（1994，南加州大学商学院）

芒格用一段比喻描述专家应有的认知结构——他后来称其为"latticework of models"：

"You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience—both vicarious and direct—on this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life. You've got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head." 译文：你的头脑中必须有模型。你必须将自己的一切经验——无论是间接获得的还是亲身经历的——都挂接到这个模型的格栅之上。你大概注意到有些学生只会死记硬背、机械复述。这样的人，在学校里会失败，在人生中也会失败。你必须把经验编织到头脑中的模型格栅之内（意译：你必须用头脑中的模型格栅，将零散的经验串联起来）。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（1994 USC 商学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

"To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail." 译文：对只有一把锤子的人，每个问题看起来都像钉子。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（引自民谚）, 《穷查理宝典》

他解释为何只有一个模型会出问题：

"The first rule is that you've got to have multiple models—because if you just have one or two that you're using, the nature of human psychology is such that you'll torture reality so that it fits your models, or at least you'll think it does." 译文：第一条规则是你必须有多个模型——因为如果你只用到一两个，人类心理的本质会使你去扭曲现实，以使之符合你的模型，或至少你会以为它符合。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（1994 USC 商学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

关于需要多少模型，以及应覆盖的学科——数学居首，工程与物理次之：

"80 or 90 important models will carry about 90% of the freight in making you a worldly-wise person. And, of those, only a mere handful really carry very heavy freight. First there's mathematics. Obviously, you've got to be able to handle numbers and quantities—basic arithmetic. And the great useful model, after compound interest, is the elementary math of permutations and combinations. The engineering idea of a backup system is a very powerful idea. The engineering idea of breakpoints—that's a very powerful model, too. The notion of a critical mass—that comes out of physics—is a very powerful model." 译文：八十或九十个重要模型将承载使你成为有见识之人的约九成重量。而其中，真正承载极重重量的只有极少数。首先是数学。显然，你必须能处理数字与数量——基础算术。而在复利之后，最有用的模型是排列与组合的基础数学。工程的备份系统思想是个非常有力的思想。工程的断裂点思想——也是个非常有力的模型。临界质量的概念——来自物理学——是个非常有力的模型。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（1994 USC 商学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

他谈会计：既是商业语言，也要懂得其局限，并举 Carl Braun 的故事：

"However, double-entry bookkeeping was a hell of an invention. But you have to know enough about it to understand its limitations—because although accounting is the starting place, it's only a crude approximation. One of my favorite stories involves a very great businessman named Carl Braun who created the CF Braun Engineering Company. He took a look at standard accounting and the way it was applied to building oil refineries and he said, 'This is asinine.' So he was a formidably willful and talented man who demonstrated both the importance of accounting and the importance of knowing its limitations." 译文：然而，复式记账是个了不起的发明。但你必须足够了解它，才能理解它的局限——因为尽管会计是起点，它只是一种粗略的近似。我最喜欢的故事之一涉及一位了不起的商人卡尔·布劳恩，他创建了 CF 布劳恩工程公司。他看了标准会计及其在建造炼油厂中的应用，说："这太荒谬了。"所以他是个意志极强、极有才华的人，既证明了会计的重要性，也证明了懂得其局限的重要性。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（1994 USC 商学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

进入微观经济学，他讲规模优势，从经验曲线到品牌与信息优势：

"Now we come to another somewhat less reliable form of human wisdom—microeconomics. And here, I find it quite useful to think of a free market economy—or partly free market economy—as sort of the equivalent of an ecosystem. And once we get into microeconomics, we get into the concept of advantages of scale. Now we're getting closer to investment analysis—because in terms of which businesses succeed and which businesses fail, advantages of scale are ungodly important. For example, one great advantage of scale taught in all of the business schools of the world is cost reductions along the so-called experience curve." 译文：现在我们来到另一种稍不可靠的人类智慧形式——微观经济学。在这里，我发现把自由市场经济——或半自由市场经济——想成某种生态系统是很有用的。而一旦进入微观经济学，我们就进入了规模优势的概念。现在我们更接近投资分析了——因为在哪些企业成功、哪些失败这方面，规模优势重要得惊人。例如，全世界商学院都教的一个巨大规模优势，是沿着所谓经验曲线的成本下降。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（1994 USC 商学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Another advantage of scale comes from psychology. The psychologists use the term social proof. We are all influenced—subconsciously and to some extent consciously—by what we see others do and approve. Therefore, if everybody's buying something, we think it's better. We don't like to be the one guy who's out of step." 译文：另一种规模优势来自心理学。心理学家用"社会认同"这个词。我们都受所见他人所为与所赞的影响——在潜意识层面，也在某种程度上在意识层面。因此，如果人人都在买某样东西，我们就觉得它更好。我们不喜欢做那个不合拍的人。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（1994 USC 商学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

GEICO 的"癌症手术公式"即出自本篇：

"GEICO is a very interesting model. It's another one of the 100 or so models you ought to have in your head. I've had many friends in the sick business fix-up game over a long lifetime. And they practically all use the following formula—I call it the cancer surgery formula:" 译文：GEICO 是个很有意思的模型。它是你头脑里应当有的约一百个模型中的另一个。我一生中有许多朋友从事"救治病企业"这一行。他们几乎全都使用下面的公式——我称之为癌症手术公式： —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（1994 USC 商学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲三普世智慧的修正（1996，斯坦福法学院）

本篇重述了"latticework of mental models"：

"What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head. And you hang your actual experience and your vicarious experience on this latticework of powerful models. And, with that system, things gradually get to fit together in a way that enhances cognition." 译文：你需要的是头脑里的一副心智模型格栅。你把你的实际经验和间接经验挂在这副有力的模型格栅上。有了那个系统，事物会逐渐以增进认知的方式各归其位。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Three（1996 斯坦福法学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

关于"不跳七尺栏"：

"We just look for no-brainer decisions. As Buffett and I say over and over again, we don't leap 7-foot fences. Instead, we look for 1-foot fences with big rewards on the other side." 译文：我们只找不假思索就能做的决定。正如巴菲特和我反复说的，我们不跳七尺高的栏。相反，我们找一尺高的栏，栏的那边是巨大的回报。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Three（1996 斯坦福法学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

他用蜜蜂作比，说明不懂装懂会扰乱全局：

"A lot of people are like that bee. They attempt to answer a question like that. And that is a huge mistake. Nobody expects you to know everything about everything. I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don't have any real knowledge. To me, they're like the bee dancing its incoherent dance. They're just screwing up the hive." 译文：许多人就像那只蜜蜂。他们试图回答那样的问题。而那是个巨大的错误。没人有理由期望你懂得关于一切的一切。我设法摆脱那些总是自信地回答自己其实毫无真知的问题的人。对我来说，他们就像那只跳着语无伦次舞蹈的蜜蜂。他们只是在搅乱整个蜂巢。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Three（1996 斯坦福法学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

关于能力圈——他本段不用这个词，但讲透了"知道自己知道什么、不知道什么"：

"The advantage of low-tech stuff for us is that we think we understand it fairly well. The other stuff we don't. And we'd rather deal with what we understand. Why should we want to play a competitive game in a field where we have no advantage—maybe a disadvantage—instead of in a field where we have a clear advantage? You must have the confidence to override people with more credentials than you whose cognition is impaired by incentive-caused bias or some similar psychological force that is obviously present. But there are also cases where you have to recognize that you have no wisdom to add and that your best course is to trust some expert. In effect, you've got to know what you know and what you don't know. What could possibly be more useful in life than that?" 译文：低技术的东西对我们的好处是，我们认为自己理解得相当好。别的东西我们不理解。我们宁可处理我们理解的东西。我们为什么要在一个我们没有优势——甚至可能是劣势——的领域玩竞争游戏，而不在一个我们有明显优势的领域玩？你必须有信心去否决那些资历比你深、却被激励导致的偏见或某种显然存在的类似心理力量损害了认知的人。但有些情况下你也得承认自己无智慧可添，最好的做法是信任某个专家。实质上，你必须知道自己知道什么、不知道什么。人生中还有什么比这更有用？ —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Three（1996 斯坦福法学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

他也谈到心理否认——举一位友人儿子失踪、母亲坚称其仍活着的例子：

"I had a family acquaintance whose much-loved son, who was brilliant and a star football player, flew off over the ocean and never came back. Well, his mother thought he was still alive. The mind will sometimes flip so that the wish becomes the belief." 译文：我有个熟人，他深受宠爱的儿子既聪慧又是足球明星，飞越海洋后再没回来。嗯，他的母亲认为他还活着。心智有时会翻转，使愿望变成信念。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Three（1996 斯坦福法学院演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲四务实思维的务实思考（1996，可口可乐案例）

芒格先用五个"有用的观念"立起框架——简化、数学、逆向、多学科、大效应来自因素组合，随即抛出一道思考题：1884 年，给你 200 万美元，怎样建成一家 2034 年值 2 万亿美元的可口可乐？他先正向：用操作性条件反射和巴甫洛夫联想把产品焊进消费者的习惯；再逆向：不问"怎样才能赢"，先问"我不想要什么"，于是得出四条必须避免的事。

"The first helpful notion is that it is usually best to simplify problems by deciding big no-brainer questions first. The second helpful notion mimics Galileo's conclusion that scientific reality is often revealed only by math as if math was the language of God. The third helpful notion is that it is not enough to think problems through forward. You must also think in reverse, much like the rustic who wanted to know where he was going to die so that he'd never go there. The fourth helpful notion is that the best and most practical wisdom is elementary academic wisdom. But there is one extremely important qualification: You must think in a multidisciplinary manner." 译文：第一个有用的观念是，通常最好通过先决定那些不假思索的大问题来简化问题。第二个有用的观念仿效伽利略的结论——科学的现实往往只有靠数学才能揭示，仿佛数学是上帝的语言。第三个有用的观念是，仅正向把问题想透是不够的。你还必须反过来想，很像那个想知道自己会死在哪儿、从而永远不去那儿的乡下人。第四个有用的观念是，最好、最实用的智慧是基础学术智慧。但有一个极其重要的限定：你必须用多学科的方式思考。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（1996 可口可乐案例演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

第四种观念里，他顺带点出"跨学科"的反面——学科割据与锤子综合征：

"Where elementary ideas will serve, your problem-solving must not be limited, as academia and many business bureaucracies are limited, by extreme balkanization into disciplines and subdisciplines, with strong taboos against any venture outside assigned territory. Instead, you must do your multidisciplinary thinking in accord with Ben Franklin's prescription in Poor Richard: 'If you want it done, go. If not, send.'" 译文：在基础观念就够用的地方，你的问题解决绝不能被学科与子学科之间极端的割裂所限制——就像学术界和许多商业官僚机构那样，带着强烈的禁忌，不许踏出被分配的领地。相反，你的多学科思考必须遵照本·富兰克林在《穷理查年鉴》里的箴言："要办成，自己去；不办，派人去。" —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（1996 可口可乐案例演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

第五种观念引出"lollapalooza"——大效应来自多因素联合：

"The fifth helpful notion is that really big effects, lollapalooza effects, will often come only from large combinations of factors. For instance, tuberculosis was tamed, at least for a long time, only by routine, combined use in each case of three different drugs." 译文：第五个有用的观念是，真正巨大的效应——lollapalooza 效应——往往只能来自因素的大规模组合。例如，结核病被驯服——至少很长一段时间——仅仅是因为在每一病例中常规地联合使用了三种不同的药物。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（1996 可口可乐案例演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

他设想 1884 年如何用 200 万美元创建一家值 2 万亿美元的可口可乐公司，并列出四条"must avoids"（反向规避）：

"First, we must avoid the protective, cloying, stop-consumption effects of aftertaste that are a standard part of physiology, developed through Darwinian evolution to enhance the replication of man's genes by forcing a generally helpful moderation on the gene carrier. To serve our ends, on hot days a consumer must be able to drink container after container of our product with almost no impediment from aftertaste. We will find a wonderful no-aftertaste flavor by trial and error and will thereby solve this problem." 译文：第一，我们必须避开余味那种保护性的、甜腻的、抑制继续饮用的作用——它是生理机制的标准组成部分，经达尔文式进化塑造，通过对基因携带者施加普遍有益的节制来促进人类基因的复制。为了达成目的，炎热天气里消费者必须能一瓶接一瓶地喝我们的产品，几乎不受余味任何阻碍。我们将反复试错，找出一味美妙的、没有余味的口味，以此解决这个问题。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（1996 可口可乐案例演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Second, we must avoid ever losing even half of our powerful trademarked name. It will cost us mightily, for instance, if our sloppiness should ever allow sale of any other kind of 'cola,' for instance, a 'peppy cola.' If there is ever a 'peppy cola,' we will be the proprietor of the brand." 译文：第二，我们必须避免哪怕失去一半强有力的注册商标名。代价将是惨重的——比如，若因我们的疏忽，市面上竟冒出任何一种别的"可乐"，比如"劲爽可乐"。若真出现"劲爽可乐"，那它必须是我们自己持有的品牌。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（1996 可口可乐案例演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Third, with so much success coming, we must avoid bad effects from envy, given a prominent place in the Ten Commandments because envy is so much a part of human nature. The best way to avoid envy, recognized by Aristotle, is to plainly deserve the success we get. We will be fanatic about product quality, quality of product presentation, and reasonableness of prices, considering the harmless pleasure it will provide." 译文：第三，随着巨大成功到来，我们必须避免嫉妒带来的坏效应——嫉妒在十诫中占显著位置，因为它是人性如此重要的一部分。避免嫉妒的最佳方式，正如亚里士多德所认识到的，是明明白白配得上我们获得的成功。我们将对产品质量、产品呈现的品质与价格的合理性保持狂热，只因它将带来无害的快乐。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（1996 可口可乐案例演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Fourth, after our trademarked flavor dominates our new market, we must avoid making any huge and sudden change in our flavor. Even if a new flavor performs better in blind taste tests, changing to that new flavor would be a foolish thing to do. This follows because, under such conditions, our old flavor will be so entrenched in consumer preference by psychological effects that a big flavor change would do us little good. And it would do immense harm by triggering in consumers the standard deprival super-reaction syndrome that makes 'take-aways' so hard to get in any type of negotiation and helps make most gamblers so irrational. Moreover, such a large flavor change would allow a competitor, by copying our old flavor, to take advantage of both (1) the hostile consumer super-reaction to deprival and (2) the huge love of our original flavor created by our previous work." 译文：第四，在我们的注册商标口味主导新市场之后，我们必须避免对口味做任何巨大而突然的改变。即使新口味在盲测中表现更好，换掉它也是愚蠢的。原因在于：此时旧口味已靠心理效应深植于消费者偏好之中，大改口味对我们好处甚微；而它会造成严重伤害——在消费者中触发标准的"剥夺超级反应综合征"，这种倾向让任何谈判中的"被拿走"都难以接受，也令多数赌徒失去理智。更糟的是，如此大幅改味会让竞争对手靠复制我们的旧口味，同时坐收两样渔利：(1) 消费者面对剥夺时充满敌意、过度反应的情绪；(2) 我们此前工作所创造的、对原始口味的巨大热爱。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（1996 可口可乐案例演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

可口可乐配方依靠操作性条件反射与巴甫洛夫联想建立：

"we will solve the problem in two answers: 1) by operant conditioning and 2) by Pavlovian conditioning." 译文：我们将用两个答案解决这个问题：1）通过操作性条件反射；2）通过巴甫洛夫式条件反射。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（1996 可口可乐案例演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲五专业人士需要更多跨学科技能（1998，哈佛法学院五十周年）

芒格以"苏格拉底式单人牌局"自问自答五个问题，核心结论是精英教育应向飞行员训练学习：

"Today I am going to engage in a game reminding us of our old professors: Socratic solitaire. I will ask and briefly answer five questions: 01 Do broadscale professionals need more multidisciplinary skill? 02 Was our education sufficiently multidisciplinary? 03 In elite, broadscale soft science, what is the essential nature of practicable, best-form multidisciplinary education? 04 In the last 50 years, how far has elite academia progressed toward attainable best-form multidisciplinarity? 05 What educational practices would make progress faster?" 译文：今天我要玩一个让我们想起老教授的游戏：苏格拉底单人牌局。我将提出并简要回答五个问题：01 广谱专业人士是否需要更多跨学科技能？02 我们的教育是否足够跨学科？03 在精英的广谱软科学中，可行的、最佳形式的跨学科教育的本质是什么？04 过去 50 年，精英学界在向可达成的最佳跨学科形式迈进上走了多远？05 哪些教育实践能加速进步？ —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Five（1998 哈佛法学院 50 周年聚会）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Yes, I am suggesting today that mighty Harvard would do better if it thought more about pilot training." 译文：是的，我今天要建议，强大的哈佛若能多想想飞行员训练，会做得更好。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Five（1998 哈佛法学院 50 周年聚会）, 《穷查理宝典》

他列出飞行员的 strict six-element system（严格六要素系统）：

"In piloting, as in other professions, one great hazard is a bad effect from man-with-a-hammer tendency. We don't want a pilot, ever, to respond to a hazard as if it was hazard X just because his mind contains only a hazard X model. And so, for that and other reasons, we train a pilot in a strict six-element system: 01 His formal education is wide enough to cover practically everything useful in piloting. 02 His knowledge of practically everything needed by pilots is not taught just well enough to enable him to pass one test or two; instead, all his knowledge is raised to practice-based fluency, even in handling two or three intertwined hazards at once. 03 Like any good algebraist, he is made to think sometimes in a forward fashion and sometimes in reverse. 04 His training time is allocated among subjects so as to minimize damage from his later malfunctions, and so what is most important in his performance gets the most training coverage and is raised to the highest fluency levels. 05 Checklist routines are always mandatory for him. 06 Even after original training, he is forced into a special knowledge maintenance routine: regular use of the aircraft simulator to prevent atrophy through long disuse of skills needed to cope with rare and important problems." 译文：在驾驶飞机中，正如在其他职业里，一个巨大危险是来自"锤子综合征"的坏效应。我们绝不想让飞行员因为一个危险只是 hazard X 的模型就把它当成 hazard X 来应对——只因他脑子里只有 hazard X 一个模型。因此，出于这个及其他原因，我们用一个严格的六要素系统训练飞行员：01 他的正规教育覆盖面足够广，几乎涵盖驾驶中有用的一切。02 他对飞行员所需几乎一切的知识，不只是教到能过一两次考试的程度；相反，他所有知识都被提升到基于实践的流利，即使同时处理两三个交织的危险也是如此。03 像任何优秀的代数家，他被训练得时而正向、时而反向地思考。04 他的训练时间被分配在各科目之间，以最小化他日后失灵造成的损害，因此他表现中最重要者获得最多训练覆盖，并被提升到最高流利度。05 清单规程对他永远强制。06 即便在初始训练之后，他也被强制进入一个特殊的知识维护程序：定期使用飞行模拟器，防止因长期不用而萎缩那些应对罕见而重要问题所需的技能。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Five（1998 哈佛法学院 50 周年聚会）, 《穷查理宝典》

他点出专业人士的两种潜意识倾向，并引怀特海对学科割裂的警告：

"More important, there are frequent, terrible effects in professionals from intertwined subconscious mental tendencies, two of which are exceptionally prone to cause trouble: 1) incentive-caused bias, a natural cognitive drift toward the conclusion that what is good for the professional is good for the client and the wider civilization; and 2) man-with-a-hammer tendency, with the name taken from the proverb 'To a man with only a hammer, every problem tends to look pretty much like a nail.' Alfred North Whitehead, for one, long ago sounded an alarm in strong language when he spoke of 'the fatal unconnectedness of academic disciplines.'" 译文：更重要的是，专业人士身上常有来自交织的潜意识心理倾向的可怕效应，其中两种特别容易惹祸：1）激励导致的偏见——一种自然认知漂移，倾向于得出"对专业人士有利的，就是对客户与更广文明有利的"结论；2）锤子综合征，名字取自谚语"对只有一把锤子的人，每个问题看起来都差不多像钉子"。阿尔弗雷德·诺思·怀特海早在很久以前就用强烈语言拉响过警报，他谈到"学科之间致命的互不相连"。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Five（1998 哈佛法学院 50 周年聚会）, 《穷查理宝典》

他引塞缪尔·约翰逊，说明利益如何扭曲认知：

"Truth is hard to assimilate in any mind when opposed by interest." 译文：当与利益相冲突时，真理在任何心智中都难以被吸收。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Five（引 Samuel Johnson）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲六领先慈善基金会的投资实践（1998）

"This full cost doesn't show up in conventional accounting. But that is because accounting has limitations and not because the full cost isn't present." 译文：这个全部成本不会出现在传统会计里。但那是因为会计有局限，而不是因为全部成本不存在。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Six（1998 慈善基金会投资实践）, 《穷查理宝典》

"The total cost of all the investment management, plus the frictional costs of fairly often getting in and out of many large investment positions, can easily reach 3 percent of foundation net worth per annum if foundations, urged on by consultants, add new activity year after year." 译文：全部投资管理的总成本，加上相当频繁地进出许多大型持仓的摩擦成本，如果基金会在顾问怂恿下年复一年增加新活动，很容易达到基金会净资产的每年百分之三。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Six（1998 慈善基金会投资实践）, 《穷查理宝典》

"I think it can be a rational choice, in some situations, for a family or a foundation to remain 90 percent concentrated in one equity. Indeed, I hope the Mungers follow roughly this course." 译文：我认为在某些情况下，家族或基金会保持 90% 集中于一只股票，可以是理性的选择。事实上，我希望芒格家大致走这条路。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Six（1998 慈善基金会投资实践）, 《穷查理宝典》

他给出富兰克林与 Bernie Cornfeld 两种相对立的模范：

"He posits a choice for his audience: the model of genius statesman Ben Franklin or that of disgraced fund manager Bernie Cornfeld. Some foundations, following the lead of institutions like Yale, have tried to become much better versions of Bernie Cornfeld's 'fund of funds.' This is an amazing development. Few would have predicted that long after Cornfeld's fall into disgrace, major universities would be leading foundations into Cornfeld's system. Better his model, I think, than Bernie Cornfeld's. The choice is plainly yours to make." 译文：他为听众摆出一个选择：天才政治家本·富兰克林的模范，还是身败名裂的基金经理伯尼·康菲尔德的模范。一些基金会跟随耶鲁等机构的脚步，试图成为伯尼·康菲尔德"基金中的基金"的更好版本。这是令人惊讶的发展。很少有人会预料到，在康菲尔德身败名裂很久之后，主要大学会领着基金会进入康菲尔德的系统。我认为，他的（富兰克林的）模范比伯尼·康菲尔德的好。选择显然由你来做。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Six（1998 慈善基金会投资实践）, 《穷查理宝典》

他引费曼，重申全书纲领：

"The best defense is that of the best physicists, who systematically criticize themselves to an extreme degree, using a mindset described by Nobel laureate Richard Feynman as follows: 'The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you're the easiest person to fool.'" 译文：最好的防御来自最优秀的物理学家，他们用一种被诺贝尔奖得主理查德·费曼如此描述的心态，极端系统化地自我批评："第一原理是你绝不能欺骗自己，而你是最容易受骗的那个人。" —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Six（1998 慈善基金会投资实践）, 《穷查理宝典》

他举长期资本管理公司（LTCM）因过度自信而崩溃：

"Similarly, the hedge fund known as Long-Term Capital Management recently collapsed through overconfidence in its highly leveraged methods, despite IQs of its principals that must have averaged 160." 译文：类似地，那个名为长期资本管理公司的对冲基金最近崩溃了，源于对其高杠杆方法的过度自信——尽管其负责人的智商平均想必达 160。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Six（1998 慈善基金会投资实践）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲七慈善圆桌早餐会（2000）

本篇讨论股价上涨带来的财富效应，并从加尔布雷思的"bezzle"推进一步，自创"febezzlement"一词：

"I will join Galbraith in coining new words: first, 'febezzle,' to stand for the functional equivalent of bezzle; second, 'febezzlement,' to describe the process of creating febezzle; and third, 'febezzlers,' to describe persons engaged in febezzlement." 译文：我将与加尔布雷思一起创造新词：第一，"febezzle"（伪贪污额），代表 bezzle 的功能等价物；第二，"febezzlement"（伪贪污），描述制造 febezzle 的过程；第三，"febezzlers"（伪贪污者），描述从事 febezzlement 的人。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（2000 慈善圆桌早餐会）, 《穷查理宝典》

"The word 'bezzle' is a contraction of the word 'embezzle,' and it was coined by Harvard economics professor John Kenneth Galbraith to stand for the increase in any period of undisclosed embezzlement. An undisclosed embezzlement has stronger stimulative effects per dollar on spending than a same-sized honest exchange of goods." 译文："bezzle"一词是"embezzle"（贪污）的缩略，由哈佛经济学教授约翰·肯尼斯·加尔布雷思创造，代表任一时段内未披露贪污的增加额。一笔未披露的贪污，每美元对消费的刺激效应，强于同等规模的诚实商品交换。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（引 John Kenneth Galbraith 的 "bezzle" 概念）, 《穷查理宝典》

芒格说自己从未修过经济课：

"I have never taken a single course in economics, nor tried to make a single dollar, ever, from foreseeing macroeconomic changes." 译文：我从未修过一门经济学课程，也从未试图通过预测宏观经济变化赚过一美元。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（2000 慈善圆桌早餐会）, 《穷查理宝典》

他谈 crowd folly（群体愚蠢）与思维工具：

"Crowd folly—the tendency of humans, under some circumstances, to resemble lemmings—explains much foolish thinking of brilliant men and much foolish behavior, like the investment management practices of many foundations represented here today." 译文：群体愚蠢——人类在某些情形下倾向于像旅鼠——解释了诸多聪明人的愚蠢想法和愚蠢行为，比如今天在座许多基金会的投资管理做法。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（2000 慈善圆桌早餐会）, 《穷查理宝典》

"The prudential rule is that underlying the old Warner & Swasey advertisement for machine tools: 'The man who needs a new machine tool and hasn't bought it is already paying for it.' The Warner & Swasey rule also applies, I believe, to thinking tools. If you don't have the right thinking tools, you and the people you seek to help are already suffering from your easily removable ignorance." 译文：审慎的规则，藏在沃纳&斯沃西公司旧时机床广告下面："需要新机床却没买的人，已经在为它付钱了。"我相信，沃纳&斯沃西的规则也适用于思维工具。如果你没有正确的思维工具，你和你想帮助的人，就已经在承受你那本可轻易消除的无知。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（2000 慈善圆桌早餐会）, 《穷查理宝典》

"Samuel Johnson believed that maintenance of easily removable ignorance by a responsible officeholder was treacherous malfeasance in meeting moral obligation." 译文：塞缪尔·约翰逊相信，负责任的任职者维持本可轻易消除的无知，是背信式的渎职，辜负了道德义务。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（引 Samuel Johnson）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲八2003 年金融大丑闻（2003，虚构寓言）

这是一篇虚构寓言，讲 Quant Technical Corporation 因股票期权会计而崩溃。创始人对坏会计的态度：

"He no more wanted bad accounting in his business than he wanted bad engineering. There were no stock options because the old man considered the accounting treatment required for stock options to be 'weak, corrupt, and contemptible.'" 译文：他绝不想要糟糕的会计，正如他不想要糟糕的工程。公司没有股票期权，因为老人认为股票期权所需的会计处理"软弱、腐败、可鄙"。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight（2003 金融大丑闻寓言）, 《穷查理宝典》

新管理层用"dollop-by-dollop system"把假利润一点点混进去：

"They privately called the prudent plan they adopted their 'dollop-by-dollop system.' If we mix only a moderate minority share of turds with the raisins each year, probably no one will recognize what will ultimately become a very large collection of turds." 译文：他们私下把所采用的审慎计划称为"一勺一勺系统"。如果我们每年只在葡萄干里掺入适量少数的屎，大概没人会认出那最终会变成一大堆屎。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight（CFO 的 "dollop-by-dollop system" 原话）, 《穷查理宝典》

报表利润从 20% 被推高到 28%，市值峰值 1.4 万亿美元、半年内跌去 90%：

"The officers quickly decided to use their dollop-by-dollop system to make Quant Tech's reported earnings increase by 28 percent per year instead of the 20 percent that would have been reported by the founder. The market capitalization of Quant Tech at its peak early in 2003 became $1.4 trillion, about 90 times earnings reported for 2002. in mid-2003 the market capitalization of Quant Tech was only $140 billion, down 90 percent from its peak only six months earlier." 译文：高管们很快决定使用他们的一勺一勺系统，让 Quant Tech 的报表利润每年增长 28%，而非创始人本会报告的 20%。Quant Tech 的市值在 2003 年初峰值达到 1.4 万亿美元，约为 2002 年报告利润的 90 倍。2003 年中，Quant Tech 的市值仅剩 1,400 亿美元，较仅六个月前的峰值下跌 90%。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight（2003 金融大丑闻寓言）, 《穷查理宝典》

故事结尾，上帝把最低一层地狱留给当年允许期权费用不计入成本的会计师事务所合伙人——"traitors"（叛徒）：

"He remembered that the lowest circle of Hell was reserved for traitors. And so he now brought in from Purgatory a group of elderly persons who, in their days on earth, had been prominent partners in major accounting firms. 'Here are your traitors,' said the chief detective. 'They adopted the false accounting convention for employee stock options. They occupied high positions in one of the noblest professions… They well knew what they were doing was disastrously wrong, yet they did it anyway.'" 译文：他记得地狱最底圈是为叛徒保留的。于是他从炼狱带进一群老者，他们在世时曾是主要会计师事务所的显赫合伙人。"这是你们的叛徒，"总侦探说，"他们采用了员工股票期权的虚假会计惯例。他们身居最高尚职业之一的要职……他们很清楚自己在做灾难性的错事，却依然做了。" —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight（2003 金融大丑闻寓言）, 《穷查理宝典》

"This account is not an implied prediction about 2003. It is a work of fiction. Except in the case of Professor Galbraith, any resemblance to real persons or companies is accidental." 译文：本记述并非对 2003 年的隐含预测。它是一篇虚构作品。除加尔布雷思教授一例外，与任何真实个人或公司的相似纯属偶然。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight（2003 金融大丑闻寓言）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲九学术经济学（2003，加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校）

芒格给学术经济学列了九条批评。他先点出学科割裂，并借怀特海的话称其为"bonkers"：

"The big general objection to economics was the one early described by Alfred North Whitehead when he spoke of the fatal unconnectedness of academic disciplines, wherein each professor didn't even know the models of the other disciplines, much less try to synthesize those disciplines with his own. I think there's a modern name for this approach that Whitehead didn't like, and that name is 'bonkers.' The nature of this failure is that it creates what I always call man-with-a-hammer syndrome." 译文：对经济学最大的总体反对意见，是阿尔弗雷德·诺思·怀特海早先描述的那种——他谈到学科之间致命的互不相连，其中每位教授甚至不知道其他学科的模型，更别提试图把那些学科与自己的综合。我认为这种方法有个现代名字——叫"bonkers"（疯了）——而怀特海当初就是不喜欢这种搞法。这种失败的本质是，它制造了我一直称为锤子综合征的东西。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Nine（2003 学术经济学）, 《穷查理宝典》

"The third weakness that I find in economics is what I call physics envy." 译文：我在经济学中发现的第三个弱点是，我所谓的"物理学嫉妒"。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Nine（2003 学术经济学）, 《穷查理宝典》

九条批评的标题依次为：

"One — Fatal unconnectedness, leading to man-with-a-hammer syndrome, often causing overweighing of what can be counted. Two — Failure to follow the fundamental full-attribution ethos of hard science. Three — Physics envy. Four — Too much emphasis on macroeconomics. Five — Too little synthesis in economics. Six — Extreme and counterproductive psychological ignorance. Seven — Too little attention to second- and higher-order effects. Eight — Not enough attention within economics to the concept of febezzlement. Nine — Not enough attention to virtue and vice effects in economics." 译文：一——致命的互不相连，导致锤子综合征，常造成对可计数之物的过度看重。二——未能遵循硬科学基本的完全归因精神。三——物理学嫉妒。四——过分强调宏观经济学。五——经济学综合不足。六——极端且适得其反的心理学无知。七——对二阶及更高阶效应关注太少。八——经济学内部对 febezzlement 概念关注不足。九——对经济学中美德与恶德效应关注不足。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Nine（2003 学术经济学）, 《穷查理宝典》

他引富兰克林与凯恩斯作结，并提及 Hardin 的"公地悲剧"：

"If you would persuade, appeal to interest and not to reason. My inspiration again is Keynes: Better roughly right than precisely wrong. Hardin caused the delightful introduction into economics, alongside Smith's beneficent invisible hand, of Hardin's wicked, evildoing invisible foot." 译文：若你想说服人，诉诸利益而非理性。我的灵感再次来自凯恩斯：大致对好过精确错。哈丁把令人愉快的东西引入了经济学——在斯密的仁慈看不见的手旁边，放上了哈丁邪恶、作恶的看不见的脚。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Nine（2003 学术经济学）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲十南加州大学法学院毕业演讲（2007）

本篇以"应得信任"为题，并区分了两种知识：

"The highest form a civilization can reach is a seamless web of deserved trust. Not much procedure, just totally reliable people correctly trusting one another." 译文：一个文明能达到的最高形式是应得信任的无缝之网。没有太多程序，只有完全可靠的人正确地彼此信任。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Ten（2007 USC 法学院毕业演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

"In this world we have two kinds of knowledge. One is Planck knowledge, the people who really know. They've paid the dues, they have the aptitude. And then we've got chauffeur knowledge. They have learned the talk." 译文：在这个世界上我们有两种知识。一种是普朗克知识，即那些真正懂的人。他们付了代价，他们有天赋。然后我们有司机知识。他们学会了那套话。 注：司机知识——芒格用"司机的角色"比喻"只会背话、不懂实质"的那类人。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Ten（2007 USC 法学院毕业演讲）, 《穷查理宝典》

演讲十一人类误判心理学（1995）

这是全书篇幅最长、芒格最得意的部分。他先谈自己对激励之力的低估：

"Well you can say, 'Everybody knows that.' Well I think I've been in the top 5% of my age cohort all my life in understanding the power of incentives, and all my life I've underestimated it. And never a year passes but I get some surprise that pushes my limit a little farther." 译文：嗯，你可以说"这谁都知道"。嗯，我认为自己一生中在理解激励的力量方面都处于同龄人的前 5%，但我一生都在低估它。没有一年我不被某个惊喜推着，让我的边界再往外挪一点。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven（1995 人类误判心理学）, 《穷查理宝典》

他用联邦快递与施乐两个案例说明激励导致的偏见：

"One of my favorite cases about the power of incentives is the Federal Express case. The heart and soul of the integrity of the system is that all the packages have to be shifted rapidly in one central location each night. And the system has no integrity if the whole shift can't be done fast. And they tried moral suasion, they tried everything in the world, and finally somebody got the happy thought that they were paying the night shift by the hour, and that maybe if they paid them by the shift, the system would work better. And lo and behold, that solution worked. Early in the history of Xerox, Joe Wilson, who was then in the government, had to go back to Xerox because he couldn't understand how their better, new machine was selling so poorly in relation to their older and inferior machine. Of course when he got there he found out that the commission arrangement with the salesmen gave a tremendous incentive to the inferior machine." 译文：我最喜欢的关于激励力量的案例之一是联邦快递案例。这个系统完整性的核心在于，所有包裹必须每晚在一个中心地点快速转运。如果整班转运不能快速完成，系统就失去了完整性。他们试过道德劝说，试过世上的一切办法，最后有人灵光一现：他们按小时给夜班付薪，也许如果按班次付薪，系统会运转得更好。结果你看，那个办法奏效了。在施乐早期，当时在政府任职的乔·威尔逊不得不回到施乐，因为他无法理解他们更好、更新的机器为何相比老旧、较差的机器卖得这么差。当然，他到那儿才发现，与销售员的佣金安排给了劣质机器巨大的激励。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven（1995 人类误判心理学）, 《穷查理宝典》

一致性倾向，他用普朗克与"人类心智如卵子"作比：

"What I'm saying here is that the human mind is a lot like the human egg, and the human egg has a shut-off device. When one sperm gets in, it shuts down so the next one can't get in. The human mind has a big tendency of the same sort. And here again, it doesn't just catch ordinary mortals; it catches the deans of physics. According to Max Planck, the really innovative, important new physics was never really accepted by the old guard." 译文：我在此说的是，人类心智很像人类的卵子，而人类的卵子有个关闭装置。当一个精子进入，它就关闭，使下一个进不来。人类心智也有很大程度的同类倾向。而且这里再次，它不光困住普通人；它困住物理学的院长们。据马克斯·普朗克，真正创新、重要的新物理学从未被老一代真正接受。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven（1995 人类误判心理学）, 《穷查理宝典》

社会认同倾向，他举了石油公司竞相收购化肥公司的例子；嫉妒则引巴菲特：

"Big-shot businessmen get into these waves of social proof. Do you remember some years ago when one oil company bought a fertilizer company, and every other major oil company practically ran out and bought a fertilizer company? It's not greed that drives the world, but envy." 译文：大人物们会陷入这些社会认同的浪潮。你还记得几年前一家石油公司买了家化肥公司，然后其他所有大石油公司几乎都冲出去买了家化肥公司吗？驱动世界的不是贪婪，而是嫉妒。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven（芒格归纳 / 常引巴菲特观点）, 《穷查理宝典》

剥夺超级反应倾向，最极端的商业案例是"新可乐"：

"The extreme business case here was New Coke. Coca-Cola has the most valuable trademark in the world… they were going to tell people not that it was improved, because you can't improve a flavor… So they got this huge deprival super-reaction syndrome." 译文：这里极端的商业案例是新可乐。可口可乐拥有世界上最有价值的商标……他们打算告诉人们不是它变好了，因为你无法改进一种口味……于是他们引发了这种巨大的剥夺超级反应综合征。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven（1995 人类误判心理学）, 《穷查理宝典》

这些倾向的运作位置，是他反复强调的要点：

"All these psychological tendencies work largely or entirely on a subconscious level, which makes them very insidious." 译文：所有这些心理倾向大都在完全潜意识的层面运作，这使得它们非常阴险。 —— Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven（1995 人类误判心理学）, 《穷查理宝典》

附事实出处核对表

本节全部引文 ↔ 原书出处（英文逐字摘自 Stripe Press 2023 第三版）

章节	核心引文（英文）	出处
序	"Charlie places a premium on life decisions over investment decisions."	Peter D. Kaufman, Introduction
序	"generous soul who will put up his own money and work for peanuts."	Warren E. Buffett, Foreword
序	"if Charlie Munger had never lived, the Buffett record would still be pretty much what it is."	Charles T. Munger, Rebuttal
一	"Charles Thomas Munger was born on January 1, 1924, in America's heartland, Omaha, Nebraska."	Michael Broggie, Chapter One
一	"graduated from Harvard Law School in 1948 and was one of 12 in his class of 335 to graduate magna cum laude."	Michael Broggie, Chapter One
一	"his 'silent partner,' Charlie Munger, who relishes his obscurity."	Michael Broggie, Chapter One
一	"market value has increased an astonishing 13,500 times, from $10 million to roughly $135 billion"	Michael Broggie, Chapter One
一	"Charlie would prefer to be anonymous."	Michael Broggie, Chapter One
二	"when you borrow a man's car, you always return it with a full tank of gas."	Charles T. Munger, Jr., Chapter Two
二	"Morality Tale… Downward Spiral Tale"	Wendy Munger, Chapter Two
二	"every time I hear of yet another government official who chose the cover-up instead of the honest confession"	Wendy Munger, Chapter Two
三	"two-track analysis… useful but which often misfunction"	Charles T. Munger, Chapter Three
三	"Above all, never fool yourself, and remember that you are the easiest person to fool."	Charles T. Munger, Chapter Three
三	"You're paying less to brokers… extra one, two, or three percentage points per annum."	Charles T. Munger, Chapter Three（sit-on-your-ass investing）
演讲一	"Carson's prescription for sure misery included: Ingesting chemicals… Envy; Resentment."	Charles T. Munger, Talk One
演讲一	"First, be unreliable… My final prescription… rustic who said, 'I wish I knew where I was going to die'"	Charles T. Munger, Talk One（芒格四处方，含乡下人故事）
演讲一	"Invert, always invert."	Charles T. Munger, Talk One（引 Jacobi）
演讲一	"always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm… theory"	Charles T. Munger, Talk One（Darwin）
演讲一	"Einstein discovered special relativity as he made a 180-degree turn"	Charles T. Munger, Talk One（Einstein）
演讲二	"array your experience… on this latticework of models."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Two
演讲二	"To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Two
演讲二	"torture reality so that it fits your models"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Two
演讲二	"80 or 90 important models will carry about 90% of the freight"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Two
演讲二	"First there's mathematics… permutations and combinations. The engineering idea of a backup system… critical mass"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（数学/工程模型）
演讲二	"Carl Braun… 'This is asinine.'"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（会计局限）
演讲二	"advantages of scale… social proof"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（微观经济学）
演讲二	"I call it the cancer surgery formula"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Two（GEICO）
演讲三	"What you need is a latticework of mental models in your head… enhances cognition."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Three
演讲三	"we don't leap 7-foot fences… 1-foot fences with big rewards"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Three
演讲三	"bee dancing its incoherent dance… screwing up the hive."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Three
演讲三	"You've got to know what you know and what you don't know."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Three（能力圈）
演讲三	"The mind will sometimes flip so that the wish becomes the belief."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Three（心理否认）
演讲四	"five helpful notions: simplify / math / invert / multidisciplinary / lollapalooza"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Four
演讲四	"'If you want it done, go. If not, send.'" (Franklin)	Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（多学科）
演讲四	"really big effects, lollapalooza effects… large combinations of factors."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Four
演讲四	"avoid… losing trademarked name / envy / sudden flavor change"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（四条 must avoids）
演讲四	"by operant conditioning and by Pavlovian conditioning."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Four（可口可乐）
演讲五	"Socratic solitaire. I will ask and briefly answer five questions: 01…05"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Five（苏格拉底单人牌局五问）
演讲五	"mighty Harvard would do better if it thought more about pilot training."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Five
演讲五	"strict six-element system" (pilot training, 全六条)	Charles T. Munger, Talk Five
演讲五	"incentive-caused bias… man-with-a-hammer tendency… fatal unconnectedness"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Five（Whitehead）
演讲五	"Truth is hard to assimilate… opposed by interest."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Five（引 Samuel Johnson）
演讲六	"full cost doesn't show up in conventional accounting."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Six
演讲六	"3 percent of foundation net worth per annum"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Six
演讲六	"90 percent concentrated in one equity"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Six
演讲六	"model of Ben Franklin or that of… Bernie Cornfeld"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Six
演讲六	"you must not fool yourself, and you're the easiest person to fool." (Feynman)	Charles T. Munger, Talk Six
演讲六	"Long-Term Capital Management… collapsed through overconfidence"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Six
演讲七	"'febezzle'… 'febezzlement'… 'febezzlers'"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven
演讲七	"An undisclosed embezzlement has stronger stimulative effects… than a same-sized honest exchange"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（引 Galbraith）
演讲七	"I have never taken a single course in economics"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven
演讲七	"Crowd folly—the tendency of humans… to resemble lemmings"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven
演讲七	"The man who needs a new machine tool and hasn't bought it is already paying for it."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（Warner & Swasey）
演讲七	"maintenance of easily removable ignorance… treacherous malfeasance"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Seven（引 Johnson）
演讲八	"weak, corrupt, and contemptible" (options accounting)	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight
演讲八	"dollop-by-dollop system" / "turds with the raisins"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight
演讲八	"reported earnings increase by 28 percent… $1.4 trillion… down 90 percent"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight
演讲八	"lowest circle of Hell was reserved for traitors."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight
演讲八	"It is a work of fiction."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eight
演讲九	"fatal unconnectedness… 'bonkers'… man-with-a-hammer syndrome"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Nine
演讲九	"physics envy"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Nine
演讲九	"Nine criticisms: fatal unconnectedness / full-attribution ethos / physics envy / macro / synthesis / psych ignorance / higher-order / febezzlement / virtue-vice"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Nine
演讲九	"appeal to interest and not to reason" / "Better roughly right than precisely wrong" / "invisible foot"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Nine（引 Franklin / Keynes / Hardin）
演讲十	"seamless web of deserved trust"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Ten
演讲十	"Planck knowledge… chauffeur knowledge"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Ten
演讲十一	"top 5% of my age cohort… all my life I've underestimated it [incentives]"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven
演讲十一	"Federal Express case… paid the night shift by the hour" / "Xerox… commission arrangement"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven
演讲十一	"human mind is a lot like the human egg… Max Planck"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven（一致性倾向）
演讲十一	"oil company bought a fertilizer company… It's not greed that drives the world, but envy."	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven（社会认同 / 巴菲特）
演讲十一	"New Coke… deprival super-reaction syndrome"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven
演讲十一	"All these psychological tendencies work… on a subconscious level"	Charles T. Munger, Talk Eleven